Senegal’s home gas reserves shall be mainly used to provide electrical energy. Authorities count on that domestic gas infrastructure initiatives will come on-line between 2025 and 2026, supplied there isn’t any delay. The monetization of those significant vitality sources is at the foundation of the government’s new gas-to-power ambitions.
In this context, the worldwide expertise group Wärtsilä performed in-depth research that analyse the economic impact of the various gas-to-power methods obtainable to Senegal. Two very totally different technologies are competing to meet the country’s gas-to-power ambitions: Combined-cycle gasoline generators (CCGT) and Gas engines (ICE).
These studies have revealed very vital system cost differences between the two major gas-to-power applied sciences the nation is presently considering. Contrary to prevailing beliefs, fuel engines are in fact a lot better suited than combined cycle fuel generators to harness energy from Senegal’s new gas sources cost-effectively, the examine reveals. Total value differences between the two applied sciences may reach as much as 480 million USD until 2035 relying on situations.
Two competing and really totally different applied sciences
The state-of-the-art energy mix models developed by Wärtsilä, which builds customised energy scenarios to identify the fee optimum method to ship new generation capability for a specific country, exhibits that ICE and CCGT technologies present significant value variations for the gas-to-power newbuild program running to 2035.
Although Ready applied sciences are equally proven and dependable, they’re very completely different when it comes to the profiles by which they can operate. CCGT is a expertise that has been developed for the interconnected European electrical energy markets, the place it could operate at 90% load factor always. On the opposite hand, flexible ICE know-how can operate efficiently in all working profiles, and seamlessly adapt itself to another era technologies that can make up the country’s energy mix.
In specific our research reveals that when operating in an electrical energy community of limited dimension such as Senegal’s 1GW nationwide grid, relying on CCGTs to considerably expand the network capacity could be extremely expensive in all attainable scenarios.
Cost differences between the applied sciences are defined by a variety of components. First of all, sizzling climates negatively impression the output of gasoline turbines more than it does that of fuel engines.
Secondly, because of Senegal’s anticipated entry to cheap domestic fuel, the operating costs become much less impactful than the investment costs. In other words, because low fuel costs lower operating costs, it’s financially sound for the nation to depend on ICE energy plants, which are cheaper to construct.
Technology modularity also performs a key function. Senegal is anticipated to require an additional 60-80 MW of generation capacity annually to have the ability to meet the growing demand. This is far decrease than the capability of typical CCGTs crops which averages 300-400 MW that have to be built in one go, resulting in unnecessary expenditure. Engine power plants, on the opposite hand, are modular, which implies they can be built precisely as and when the country wants them, and further extended when required.
The numbers at play are important. The mannequin exhibits that If Senegal chooses to favour CCGT crops at the expense of ICE-gas, it’s going to lead to as much as 240 million dollars of extra price for the system by 2035. The cost difference between the applied sciences can even increase to 350 million USD in favor of ICE know-how if Senegal also chooses to build new renewable energy capability throughout the next decade.
Risk-managing potential fuel infrastructure delays
The improvement of gasoline infrastructure is a complex and lengthy endeavour. Program delays are not uncommon, inflicting gasoline provide disruptions that can have an enormous monetary influence on the operation of CCGT crops.
Nigeria knows something about that. Only final year, vital fuel supply points have caused shutdowns at a few of the country’s largest gasoline turbine energy plants. Because Gas turbines operate on a steady combustion process, they require a continuing provide of fuel and a secure dispatched load to generate consistent energy output. If the provision is disrupted, shutdowns occur, putting a great strain on the overall system. ICE-Gas vegetation then again, are designed to adjust their operational profile over time and increase system flexibility. Because of their flexible operating profile, they had been able to keep a much higher level of availability
The examine took a deep dive to analyse the monetary influence of two years delay within the gas infrastructure program. It demonstrates that if the country decides to speculate into gas engines, the value of gas delay can be 550 million dollars, whereas a system dominated by CCGTs would lead to a staggering 770 million dollars in additional value.
Whichever method you look at it, new ICE-Gas technology capability will decrease the entire value of electricity in Senegal in all potential eventualities. If Senegal is to satisfy electricity demand progress in a cost-optimal method, no much less than 300 MW of latest ICE-Gas capability might be required by 2026.
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